FullyInformed.com

Market Direction Outlook for June 10 2013 – Up But Suspect

Jun 9, 2013 | Stock Market Outlook

Friday saw the market direction turn up on the jobs numbers and the belief the Fed will not be pulling back on Quantitative Easing any time soon. The move was large following the big up move on Thursday. On June 5th the S&P closed at 1608.90. By Friday the S&P had closed at 1643.38, a rise of 34.48 points or 2.1%. When you consider that the recent intraday high was on May 22 at $1687.18 you can see that this latest market direction correction was about as small as the April correction. The market direction up still has not experienced a serious correction.

Market Direction Chart for June 7

The chart below shows some interesting aspects of the past two shallow corrections in the S&P 500. The April correction  saw a shallow momentum reaction as selling was muted for the most part. The rally that followed was strong and included strong momentum. The decline was quick and momentum was also deeper.

In both instances the 20 period exponential moving average (EMA) broke easily and then the market direction tested the 50 period and rallied back. Market Direction Correction of April 2013 and May 2013

Whether there are enough reasons for the markst to continue to rally and break the most recent high in doubtful at this point but if investor enthusiasm is strong enough, anything is possible. This decline though saw more selling than the previous decline. It will be interesting to see if the market rallies for a couple more days and then starts to renew the sell-off.

Market Direction Closing For June 7 2013

The S&P 500 closed at 1,643.38 up 20.82 points. The Dow closed at 15,248.12 up 207.50 points. The NASDAQ closed at 3,469.22 up 45.16 points.

Market Direction Technical Indicators At The Close of June 7 2013

Let’s review the market direction technical indicators at the close of June 7 2013 on the S&P 500 and view the market direction outlook for June 10 2013.

Market Direction Technical Analysis June 7 2013

For Momentum I am using the 10 period. Momentum which has been collapsing remained negative but is moving higher and almost ready to turn positive after two days of gains.

For MACD Histogram I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a sell signal on May 24. The sell signal is still valid but the MACD reading is higher today but still quite negative.

The Ultimate Oscillator settings are Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

The Ultimate Oscillator is back positive.

Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. The rate of change is also back positive.

For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic is oversold and signaling that the market direction is now back to up.

For the Fast Stochastic I use the K period of 20 and D period of 5. These are not default settings but settings I set for the 1 to 3 month S&P 500 chart when it is set for daily. The Fast Stochastic is also signaling market direction is up. It was the fast stochastic that signaled market direction up on Friday.

Market Direction Outlook And Strategy for June 10 2013

Thursday may have been a key reversal day and at present certainly does look like the real thing. The bounce off the 50 period EMA is identical to the last two pull backs in the market and Friday’s big jump was strong throughout the day.

I have though seen this type of rally back only to be disappointed within a couple of days. Overall there has to be reasons that the market direction can move a lot higher and keep moving up. This is why I prefer stock and option investing.

In my portfolio I can stay with out of the money Put Selling and continue to earn income even if the market direction rallies higher or lower. For stock positions I can consider in the money covered calls that provide some protection against the market direction pulling back as well as earning profits if the market moves forward.

Rather than having to judge the market direction perfectly each day I can continue to earn decent profits, keep some cash to the sidelines and wait for clear signals as to the overall market direction. When the present rally started on Thursday I commented that this rally back could be suspect. It could easily be a reaction by investors and selling would return within a few days. I still hold to that belief.

For Monday then I am expected the markets to move sideways to down at the outset but the Market Direction Technical Tools are split as to further upside with 4 pointing to a higher market for Monday and two indicating the market direction is still weak. Probably the Fast Stochastic is the best indicator at this point and right now it is indicating that the rally will continue Monday but with the market now heavily overbought after two days of rallying, the market may take a bit of a breather on Monday.

Market Direction Internal Links

Profiting From Understanding Market Direction (Articles Index)

How I Use Market Timing

How I Use Market Timing

Understanding Short-Term Signals

Various Market Timing Systems

Market Direction Portfolio Trades (Members)

Market Direction External Links

Market Direction IWM ETF Russell 2000 Fund Info

Market Direction SPY ETF 500 Fund Info

Search

Select to view all results...

Generic selectors
Exact matches only
Search in title
Search in content
Post Type Selectors

Recent Outlooks

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Dec 24 2024 – Weakness With Possible Dip But Still Bias Up

Prior Trading Day Summary: Monday saw investors try to resume the bounce from Friday. The day started with a dip which was expected. The dip brought in buyers and the rally restarted. By the close the SPX had climbed 43 …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Dec 23 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Dec 23 2024 review the bounce on Friday along with the outlook for the shortened Christmas Week of trading. Stocks discussed include Nike Stock (NKE), Lululemon Athletica Stock (LULU), FedEx …

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Dec 23 2024 – Possible Dip But Still Bullish and Higher

Prior Trading Day Summary: Friday saw a second bounce in equities following Wednesday’s collapse after the Fed’s news conference made it clear the Fed may scale back interest rate cuts in 2025 to 2 from an expected 4. Friday’s bounce …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Dec 20 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Dec 20 2024 review the failed rally attempt on Thursday and what investors should expect into the end of the week. Stocks discussed include Nike Stock (NKE), FedEx Stock (FDX) …

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Dec 20 2024 – Potential Second Bounce But Lower

Prior Trading Day Summary: Thursday saw a weak bounce attempt which saw the opening high of 5935 within a couple of minutes and from there the index spent the day drifting lower. Every rally higher ran into sellers. By the …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Dec 19 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Dec 19 2024 review Wednesday’s massive sell-off. Stocks discussed include Home Depot Stock (HD), SMH ETF, VIX ETF, Nike Stock (NKE), FedEx Stock (FDX) and more. The morning Investing Strategy …

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Dec 19 2024 – Bounce Likely But Lower Close

Prior Trading Day Summary: Wednesday saw stocks collapse following hawkish comments from the Fed Chair Powell who indicated 2025 may see just two rate cuts rather than the anticipated 4 rate cuts. As well some investors and analysts felt his …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Dec 18 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Dec 18 2024 review the day’s outlook and expectations following the Fed’s latest interest rate decision. Stocks discussed include SMH ETF, Broadcom Stock (AVGO), UnitedHealth Group Stock (UNH) and more …

Stock Market Outlook for Wed Dec 18 2024 – All About The Fed

Prior Trading Day Summary: Tuesday was another choppy day which ended with all 3 indexes lower. The S&P closed down 23 points to 6050 which wiped out yesterday’s gain. Volume rose to 4.7 billion but new 52 week lows were …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Dec 17 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Dec 17 2024 review the day’s outlook and outline one trade in particular being done today. Stocks discussed include SMH ETF, Adobe Stock (ADBE) , Broadcom Stock (AVGO), Costco Stock …

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Dec 17 2024 – Bullish Ahead Of The FED

Prior Trading Day Summary: Monday was a choppy day on the markets with Dow Jones Index falling yet again but the SPX and NASDAQ both managed to end the day positive. The S&P closed up 23 points to 6074. The …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Dec 16 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Dec 16 2024 review the outlook for the third week of December. Stocks discussed include Adobe Stock (ADBE) , Broadcom Stock (AVGO), Costco Stock (COST) , Best Buy Stock (BBY) …

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Dec 16 2024 – Choppy – Bias Lower

Prior Trading Day Summary: Friday saw the SPX end the day flat closing where it opened at 6051. Intraday the index slipped to 6036 and moved as high as 6078. Volume was low at 3.7 billion shares but more stocks …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Dec 13 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Dec 13 2024  review the outlook following Thursday’s sell-off. Stocks discussed include Adobe Stock (ADBE) , MongoDB Stock (MDB), Nordson Corp Stock (NDSN), Broadcom Stock (AVGO), Apple Stock (AAPL), Microsoft …

Subscribe For The Latest News