FullyInformed.com

Market Direction Outlook for June 10 2013 – Up But Suspect

Jun 9, 2013 | Stock Market Outlook

Friday saw the market direction turn up on the jobs numbers and the belief the Fed will not be pulling back on Quantitative Easing any time soon. The move was large following the big up move on Thursday. On June 5th the S&P closed at 1608.90. By Friday the S&P had closed at 1643.38, a rise of 34.48 points or 2.1%. When you consider that the recent intraday high was on May 22 at $1687.18 you can see that this latest market direction correction was about as small as the April correction. The market direction up still has not experienced a serious correction.

Market Direction Chart for June 7

The chart below shows some interesting aspects of the past two shallow corrections in the S&P 500. The April correction  saw a shallow momentum reaction as selling was muted for the most part. The rally that followed was strong and included strong momentum. The decline was quick and momentum was also deeper.

In both instances the 20 period exponential moving average (EMA) broke easily and then the market direction tested the 50 period and rallied back. Market Direction Correction of April 2013 and May 2013

Whether there are enough reasons for the markst to continue to rally and break the most recent high in doubtful at this point but if investor enthusiasm is strong enough, anything is possible. This decline though saw more selling than the previous decline. It will be interesting to see if the market rallies for a couple more days and then starts to renew the sell-off.

Market Direction Closing For June 7 2013

The S&P 500 closed at 1,643.38 up 20.82 points. The Dow closed at 15,248.12 up 207.50 points. The NASDAQ closed at 3,469.22 up 45.16 points.

Market Direction Technical Indicators At The Close of June 7 2013

Let’s review the market direction technical indicators at the close of June 7 2013 on the S&P 500 and view the market direction outlook for June 10 2013.

Market Direction Technical Analysis June 7 2013

For Momentum I am using the 10 period. Momentum which has been collapsing remained negative but is moving higher and almost ready to turn positive after two days of gains.

For MACD Histogram I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a sell signal on May 24. The sell signal is still valid but the MACD reading is higher today but still quite negative.

The Ultimate Oscillator settings are Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

The Ultimate Oscillator is back positive.

Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. The rate of change is also back positive.

For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic is oversold and signaling that the market direction is now back to up.

For the Fast Stochastic I use the K period of 20 and D period of 5. These are not default settings but settings I set for the 1 to 3 month S&P 500 chart when it is set for daily. The Fast Stochastic is also signaling market direction is up. It was the fast stochastic that signaled market direction up on Friday.

Market Direction Outlook And Strategy for June 10 2013

Thursday may have been a key reversal day and at present certainly does look like the real thing. The bounce off the 50 period EMA is identical to the last two pull backs in the market and Friday’s big jump was strong throughout the day.

I have though seen this type of rally back only to be disappointed within a couple of days. Overall there has to be reasons that the market direction can move a lot higher and keep moving up. This is why I prefer stock and option investing.

In my portfolio I can stay with out of the money Put Selling and continue to earn income even if the market direction rallies higher or lower. For stock positions I can consider in the money covered calls that provide some protection against the market direction pulling back as well as earning profits if the market moves forward.

Rather than having to judge the market direction perfectly each day I can continue to earn decent profits, keep some cash to the sidelines and wait for clear signals as to the overall market direction. When the present rally started on Thursday I commented that this rally back could be suspect. It could easily be a reaction by investors and selling would return within a few days. I still hold to that belief.

For Monday then I am expected the markets to move sideways to down at the outset but the Market Direction Technical Tools are split as to further upside with 4 pointing to a higher market for Monday and two indicating the market direction is still weak. Probably the Fast Stochastic is the best indicator at this point and right now it is indicating that the rally will continue Monday but with the market now heavily overbought after two days of rallying, the market may take a bit of a breather on Monday.

Market Direction Internal Links

Profiting From Understanding Market Direction (Articles Index)

How I Use Market Timing

How I Use Market Timing

Understanding Short-Term Signals

Various Market Timing Systems

Market Direction Portfolio Trades (Members)

Market Direction External Links

Market Direction IWM ETF Russell 2000 Fund Info

Market Direction SPY ETF 500 Fund Info

Search

Select to view all results...

Generic selectors
Exact matches only
Search in title
Search in content
Post Type Selectors

Recent Outlooks

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Apr 4 2025 – All About The March Jobs Numbers

Prior Trading Day Summary: Thursday saw stocks collapsing worldwide following higher than expected tariffs from President Trump. At was a brutal day, the worse single day since 2020. The SPX closed down 274 points to 5396 on 7.3 billion shares …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Apr 3 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Apr 3 2025 review the outlook for stocks after tariffs were announced on Wednesday. Stocks discussed for today include Chevron Stock (CVX), Exxon Mobil Stock (XOM), VIX ETF, TQQQ ETF, …

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Apr 3 2025 – Bearish Following Higher Than Expected Tariffs

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Wed Apr 2 2025, investors rallied stocks for a third day on hope that the tariffs being introduced would be lower than many expected. As we found out after the market closed, the tariffs were …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Apr 2 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Apr 2 2025 review the second higher day on Tuesday. Stocks discussed for today include VIX ETF, TQQQ ETF, SQQQ ETF, RH Stock (RH) and more. The morning Investing Strategy …

Stock Market Outlook for Wed Apr 2 2025 – Tariffs Day – Still Bearish – Bounce Attempt Likely

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Tue Apr 1 2025 stocks sold lower before finding some buyers. By the close the SPX and NASDAQ were back positive. The SPX closed up 21 points to 5633 on 4.5 billion shares traded. The …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Apr 1 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Apr 1 2025 review the afternoon rally from Monday. Stocks discussed for today include VIX ETF, TQQQ ETF, SQQQ ETF and more. The morning Investing Strategy Notes are for FullyInformed …

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Apr 1 2025 – Nice Bounce But Still Bearish

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Mon Mar 31 2025 stocks seemed headed for another low until buyers finally returned. The index bounced and the SPX closed up 31 points to 5612. Volume was good at 5.3 billion shares and by …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Mar 31 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Mar 31 2025 review the continuation of the sell-off. Stocks discussed for today include VIX ETF, TQQQ ETF, Lululemon Athletica Stock (LULU) and more. The morning Investing Strategy Notes are …

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Mar 31 2025 – Bounce Attempt Likely But Still Bearish

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Fri Mar 28 2025 stocks plunged lower without any large rally attempt. This lead to more selling which saw the index close near the day’s low. The SPX lost 112 points and ended the week …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Mar 28 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Mar 28 2025 review the state of the market. Stocks discussed for Thursday include VIX ETF, TQQQ ETF, Lululemon Athletica Stock (LULU) and more. The morning Investing Strategy Notes are …

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Mar 28 2025 – Weakness Into The Weekend

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Thursday stocks had big swings with the SPX falling as deep as 5670 and rallying to 5732 before closing at 5693 for a small loss of 19 points. The SPX is still up 25 points …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Mar 27 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Mar 27 2025 review the outlook for the rally as well as comments on the impact of the 25% auto tariffs announced on Wednesday. Stocks discussed for Thursday include VIX …

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Mar 27 2025 – Bounce Attempt

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Wednesday investors reacted to news of tariffs on automobiles entering the USA. There was also some profit-taking after 3 days of rallying. The S&P closed down 64 points to 5712 but on declining volume of …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Mar 26 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Mar 26 2025 review the outlook following a choppy day of trading on Tuesday, during which volumes to the downside were dominant. Stocks discussed for Wednesday include VIX ETF, Apple …

Subscribe For The Latest News