FullyInformed.com

Market Direction Outlook For May 8 2015 – All About The Jobs Numbers

May 7, 2015 | Stock Market Outlook

The outlook for stocks on May 7 was for stocks to bounce but remain weak. The outlook is primarily sideways heading into the jobs numbers on Friday.  Stocks spent much of the day trying to climb and closed up 7.85 points or about 0.38% on the day in what was a rather uninspiring day. Still though, the selling subsided for the day at least and investors are now ready to tackle the jobs numbers Friday morning.

Advance Decline for May 7 2015

Volume dropped by just 100 million shares on Thursday with 3.7 billion shares traded. Of those shares 54% were moving higher and 44% were lower. New lows fell back slightly to jusyt 49 while new highs were almost unchanged from Wednesday, at 26. All in all it volume showed a slight up bias.

Market Direction Closings For May 7 2015

The S&P closed at 2,088.00 up 7.85. The Dow closed at 17,924.06 up 82.08.  The NASDAQ closed at 4945.54 up 25.90.

Market Direction Technical Indicators At The Close of May 7 2015

Let’s review the market direction technical indicators at the close of May 7 2015 on the S&P 500 and view the market direction outlook for May 8 2015.

Market Direction Technical Analysis for May 7 2015

Market Direction Technical Analysis for May 7 2015

Stock Chart Comments:

The S&P recovered back to close at the 50 day simple moving average (SMA). The close today was not above yesterday’s open so the outlook remains unchanged.

Support and Resistance Levels:

These are the present support and resistance levels.

2100 is very light support. Stocks will have to stay above it to change it back to solid support and convince investors that the market has staying power and will push well beyond 2100. That still does not appear to be the case.

2075 is light support. Below that is 2050 which is also light support. Stronger support is at 2000 which has repeatedly held the market up throughout each pullback in January and February.

Weak support is at 1970. Stronger support is at 1956.

1870 and 1840 are both levels with strong enough support to delay the market falling and should see a sideways action attempt while investors decide whether to sell or buy.

The other two support levels are 1775 and 1750. I have explained that these two are critical support for the present bull market. While 1775 is important it is 1750 that is the bottom line.

A break of 1750 would mark a severe correction from the most recent high. This would be the biggest correction since April 2012. A pull-back of that size would definitely stun investors and bring to question whether the bull market is finished.

Momentum: For Momentum I am using the 10 period. Momentum is negative and falling.

MACD Histogram: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a confirmed sell signal on May 5. Today the signal is strengthening to the downside.

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months. The Ultimate Oscillator is negative and rising.

Rate of Change: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. The rate of change has signaled a change to the downside. There is no change in yesterday’s signal.

Slow Stochastic: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day. The Slow Stochastic issued a sell signal yesterday which was confirmed today.

Fast Stochastic: For the Fast Stochastic I use the K period of 20 and D period of 5. These are not default settings but settings I set for the 1 to 3 month S&P 500 chart when it is set for daily. The Fast Stochastic is signaling lower still for stocks and did bounce slightly today. Another up day on Friday could see a buy signal from the Fast Stochastic.

Market Direction Outlook for May 8 2015

Today was an uninspiring day for market action. Momentum remains bias to the downside despite the rebound today. All the technical indicators are still pointing lower for stocks.

Friday though is facing the April non-farm payroll numbers and they are often a game changer. Exactly how they will change stocks this time around is difficult to judge. No one knows exactly what types of numbers investors need to see to jump-start the rally again. Higher numbers of unemployed would mean the economy is slowing but could assist in delaying any Fed rate hike, but if the economy is slowing then stocks are fully valued, so how much upside is there for stocks then?

If the jobs numbers show more employed, this could mean a June rate increase which would mean stocks will be under pressure. That won’t be good for stocks either. Looking at the two scenarios, you have to wonder what scenario would be best for stocks.

Friday then is a toss-up, but beyond Friday markets still look like they want to move lower. So if Friday is an up day, then Monday could be the next down day. Basically then, it is all about the jobs numbers.

Stay FullyInformed With Email Updates

    Your First Name (required)

    Your Email (required)

    Anti-Spam: Please Answer This Math Question

    I will send you a reply to confirm that you want to subscribe before sending any emails.


    Market Direction Internal Links

    Profiting From Understanding Market Direction (Articles Index)

    How I Use Market Timing

    How I Use Market Timing

    Understanding Short-Term Signals

    Various Market Timing Systems

    Market Direction Portfolio Trades (Members)

    Market Direction External Links

    Market Direction

    IWM ETF Russell 2000 Fund Info

    Market Direction SPY ETF 500 Fund Info

    Search

    Select to view all results...

    Generic selectors
    Exact matches only
    Search in title
    Search in content
    Post Type Selectors

    Recent Outlooks

    Stock Market Outlook for Fri Mar 14 2025 – Bounce Expected

    Prior Trading Day Summary: On Thu Mar 13 2025 stocks continued their downward spiral with the SPX at the 5500 level before managing to close slightly above it. The SPX ended the day down 77 points to 5521. The NASDAQ …

    Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Mar 13 2025

    For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Mar 13 2025 review Wednesday’s trading and the outlook for stocks for today. Stocks discussed for Thursday include Adobe Stock (ADBE), Microsoft Stock (MSFT), Apple Stock (AAPL), Wells Fargo Stock …

    Stock Market Outlook for Thu Mar 13 2025 – Deeply Oversold and PPI Numbers

    Prior Trading Day Summary: On Wednesday stocks tried to stage a rebound of sorts but while the attempt was reasonable on the NASDAQ, the SPX rose just slightly. The Consumer Price Index report on Wednesday came is lower than expected …

    Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Mar 12 2025

    For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Mar 12 2025 review Tuesday’s market action and the outlook for the CPI numbers. Stocks discussed for Tuesday include Adobe Stock (ADBE), Dollar General Stock (DG), Apple Stock (AAPL), Oracle …

    Stock Market Outlook for Wed Mar 12 2025 – Still Deeply Oversold – CPI Numbers

    Prior Trading Day Summary: On Tuesday stocks fell further but also attempted a couple of rebounds on rising volume. The SPX saw 6.3 billion shares traded with 45% of the volume advancing by the close. 58% of all stocks though …

    Quick Morning Comments – Tue Mar 11 2025

    I’ll update tonight but markets are trying to build some kind of support. Some stocks are getting ridiculously priced. Those that have not sold lower are today under selling pressure. Stocks like Union Pacific Stock (UNP), T-Mobile Stock (TMUS), Home …

    Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Mar 11 2025

    For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Mar 11 2025 review Monday’s sell-off along with a look at when we might expected a bounce. Stocks discussed for Tuesday include Apple Stock (AAPL), Crowdstrike Stock (CRWD), Broadcom Stock …

    Stock Market Outlook for Tue Mar 11 2025 – Deeply Oversold – Bounce Expected

    Prior Trading Day Summary: On Monday recession fears continued to dominate investor sentiment and stocks fell lower, trading all day below the 200 day moving average on the SPX. The index broke through 5600 intraday but managed to rebound to …

    Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Mar 10 2025

    For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Mar 10 2025 review the outlook for the start of the second week of March. Stocks discussed for Monday include Marvell Stock (MRVL), Broadcom Stock (AVGO), Oracle Stock (ORCL), Microsoft …

    Stock Market Outlook for Mon Mar 10 2025 – Second Bounce Attempt

    Prior Trading Day Summary: On Friday the February employment numbers disappointed investors who opened the day selling the SPX to 5719 with heavy sell orders. Buyers returned shortly after the initial selling but couldn’t contain sellers who by 11:50 had …

    Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Mar 7 2025

    For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Mar 7 2025 review Thursday’s market plunge and the outlook for Friday. There are a number of stocks discussed today including Crowdstrike Stock (CRWD), Zscaler Stock (ZS), Broadcom Stock (AVGO) …

    Stock Market Outlook for Fri Mar 7 2025 – All About The February Jobs Numbers

    Prior Trading Day Summary: On Thursday the day started with indexes opening considerably lower and ending the day having reached the 200 day moving average a couple of times intraday. The SPX closed down 104 points for a second time …

    Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Mar 6 2025

    For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Mar 6 2025 review Wednesday’s market bounce and the outlook going forward for stocks in general. There are a number of stocks discussed today including Zscaler Stock (ZS), Marvell Stock …

    Stock Market Outlook for Thu Mar 6 2025 – Volatile But Still Bullish

    Prior Trading Day Summary: On Monday stocks attempted a bounce, again. This is all about tariffs and what they may or may not cause to the economy. On Wednesday, when it looked like there was room for some concessions, stocks …

    Subscribe For The Latest News