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Stock Market Outlook For Tue Aug 1 2023 – Mixed Outlook From The Technical Signals

Aug 1, 2023 | Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook - Mixed

Day’s Summary

On Monday stocks continued to push slightly higher ending up 6 points. Intraday the S&P reached 4594 before closing at 4588.

The NASDAQ rose 29 points, closing at 14346.

Let’s review the technical indicators from the close on Friday to see if the MACD sell signal might get confirmed.


Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Mon Jul 31 2023

The index closed slightly higher and below the Upper Bollinger Band. It is still rallying above all major moving averages which is bullish.

The closing candlestick on Monday was neutral to mixed but still keeping a slightly bullish bias.

The 21, 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages are continuing to climb which is bullish.

The Lower Bollinger Band continued above the 50 day moving average which is bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is still rising which is bullish.

Overall the index is still bullish but showing continued signs of being overbought.

Stock Market Outlook review of Mon Jul 31 2023


Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Momentum: Momentum is falling and positive.

  • Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Thursday Jul 13. On Thursday Jul 27 a new unconfirmed down signal was generated. It was not confirmed on Monday.

  • Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is unchanged and positive.

  • Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place. It is overbought.

  • Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and back into overbought readings.

  • Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling.

  • Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels

4600 is resistance
4575 is resistance
4550 is resistance
4525 is resistance
4500 is resistance
4485 is resistance
4470 is resistance
4450 is support
4435 is support
4420 is support
4400 is support
4390 is support
4370 is support
4350 is support
4340 is support
4325 is support
4310 is support
4300 is support
4290 is support
4275 is support
4250 is support
4240 is support
4225 is support
4210 is support
4200 is good support


Stock Market Outlook for Tue Aug 1 2023 

For Tuesday the S&P technical indicators are mixed but the MACD down signal remains unconfirmed as of Monday’s close.

The outlook remains higher for the S&P even if only a few points by the close.


Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Tuesday:

9:45 Final US manufacturing PMI

10:00 Job openings

10:00 ISM manufacturing

10:00 Construction spending







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