Stock Market Outlook for Mon Apr 11 2022 – Unconfirmed MACD Down Signal

Friday was primarily a sideways day for stocks with the SPX trading between 4515 to 4480 and ending the day at 4488, down just 11 points by the close.

The NASDAQ though had a rougher day and again ended the day down 1.3% at 13,711 after losing another 184 points.

Let’s review Friday’s closing technical indicators to see what to expect for Monday April 11 to start off the second week of the month.

Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Fri Apr 8 2022 

The 21 day moving average continued to climb above the 50 and 200 day moving average and ended the day at the 100 day moving average. A move above it would be bullish.

As well the 50 day moving average is moving away from the 200 day which is also bullish and the 100 day is still trending sideways, which is also bullish.

The closing candlestick on Friday ended at the 100 day moving average. The closing candlestick is bearish for Monday.

Meanwhile the Upper Bollinger Band in still turning lower and the Lower Bollinger Band is turning sharply higher. This is bearish. If this continues we could see a Bollinger Bands Squeeze this week.

The 200 day moving average is back at the 4400 level which is bullish.

The SPX still has 4 down signals in place and 1 up signal.

The chart is about 60% bearish and 40% bullish for Monday.

Stock Market Outlook review of Fri Apr 8 2022

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is falling and has turned negative.

• Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal Wed Mar 16 2022. On Friday a new unconfirmed down signal was issued. The histogram also turned negative. If Monday is negative, this down signal will be confirmed.

• Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling and almost negative.

• Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a strong down signal in place.

Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling.

• Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is unchanged which indicates prices will not have wide movements on Monday or Tuesday.

• Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

4650 is resistance

4640 is resistance

4625 is resistance

4600 is strong resistance

4590 is resistance

4575 is light resistance

4560 is light resistance

4550 is light support

4525 is light support

4500 is support

4490 is light support

4475 is light support

4450 is light support

4400 is support

4370 is light support

4350 is light support.

4300 is good support

 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Mon Apr 11 2022 

For Monday the SPX is facing a new but unconfirmed down signal. The technical indicators are all turning negative and the outlook is for a lower day.

By the close on Friday if the day ends lower to flat, the new down signal will be confirmed.

On Monday there are two potential market moving events, both of which are negative. (see below) Throughout the week there are many events that could all be negative for stocks.

Potential Market Moving Events

Monday:

11:00 NY Fed median 1 year and 3 year expected inflation

12:40: Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks

Tuesday:

8:30 Consumer Price Index

8:30 Core CPI monthly and year-over-year

12:10 Fed Governor Brainard speaks

2:00 Federal Budget Deficit

6:45 Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speaks

Wednesday:

Producer Price Index

Thursday:

8:30 Initial Jobless claims and continuing jobless claims

8:30 Retail sales

10:00 University of Michigan consumer sentiment index

10:00 University of Michigan inflation expectations

10:00 Business Inventories

3:50 Cleveland Fed President Mester speaks

6:00 Philadelphia Fed President Harker speaks

Friday:

8:30 Empire state manufacturing index

9:15 Industrial production index

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