Stock Market Outlook for Mon Mar 21 2022 – Overbought, Dips Likely But Higher Close

Friday’s market action was stronger than expected. On the S&P 51 points were added, almost matching Thursday’s 54 points gain. On the NASDAQ though 279 points were added beating Thursday’s 178 point gain. Friday’s strong showing left the S&P with a 2% gain for the month of March and down just 6% for the year. The NASDAQ ended Friday with a 1% gain for March and down 11% for the year.

Friday’s strong showing pushed the S&P back above the 200 and 50 day moving averages. It closed at the 100 day. The NASDAQ closed above the 50 and 21 day moving averages and within 386 points of the 200 day moving average which it fell below on Jan 18.

Let’s review Friday’s closing numbers to see what to expect for Mon Mar 21 2022.

Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Fri Mar 18 2022 

The S&P chart shows further improvements following Friday’s close. The closing candlestick points to an overbought market that will see some profit-taking on Monday. The candlestick also points to a higher close for Monday. The bullish candlestick advises that investors who missed the rally last week will use any dips, particularly deep ones, to jump into stocks.

The closing candlestick on Friday pushed above the 200 day moving average to close at the Upper Bollinger Band. It is not above all the major moving averages except the 100 day.

More important is for the first time the 21 day moving average is no longer falling but trending sideways and starting to turn back up. Equally important, the Lower Bollinger Band is turning up as well. Both of these are bullish events.

The SPX still has 4 down signals in place.  The 200, 50 and 100 day moving averages are still falling lower.

The chart is more bullish than it has been in days and at the highest valuation since Feb 11. The chart indicates the market is overbought but there is still room to the upside.

Stock Market Outlook review of Fri Mar 18 2022

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.

• Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal Wed Mar 16 2022. On Friday the MACD signal was very strong with a reading of 23.41. The MACD histogram also has a very strong reading which is quite noticeable in the chart.

• Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising for a fourth day and on the verge of overbought signals.

• Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic still has a strong up signal in place and signaling overbought.

Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising for a fourth day and signaling overbought.

• Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising and indicates prices will rise again on Monday.

• Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

4500 is resistance

4490 is light resistance

4475 is light resistance

4450 is light resistance

4400 is resistance

4370 is light resistance

4350 is light support.

4300 is good support

4290 is light support

4270 is light support

4250 is good support

4225 is light support

4200 is good support

4150 is good support

4000 is good support

 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Mon Mar 21 2022 

For Monday the signals are overwhelmingly positive for the market. There will be some profit-taking as the index is overbought but it will not hold back the rally higher.

By the close of trading on Monday the index will be higher although a day as big as we saw on Friday is unlikely to start the week off.

Stock Market Outlook Archives

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Jan 15 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Jan 15 2025 review Tuesday's volatile day of trading along with the outlook for Wednesday's trading. Stocks discussed include TQQQ ETF, Taiwan Semiconductor Stock (TSM), UnitedHealth Group Stock (UNH), Bank Of America ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Wed Jan 15 2025 – All About Bank Earnings

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Tue Jan 14 2025 stocks once more gyrated between gains and losses. The S&P was as low as 5805 and as high as 5871 before closing up 6 points to 5842. Volume dipped lower on Tuesday with ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Jan 14 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Jan 14 2025 review Monday's market action which ended with a slight gain. Stocks discussed include TQQQ ETF, Citigroup Stock (C), JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo Stock (WFC), Goldman Sachs Stock ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Jan 14 2025 – Second Bounce Likely

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Monday stocks opened lower but all 3 indexes managed to close the day higher. The SPX fell below the 100 day moving average in the morning but managed to find buyers to help push the index back ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Jan 13 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Jan 13 2025 review Friday's sell-off, the outlook for today and the week. Stocks discussed include TQQQ ETF, Walt Disney (DIS), JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo Stock (WFC), Citigroup Stock (C) ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Jan 13 2025 – Still Bearish – Bounce Attempt Likely

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Friday investors sold stocks lower following a stronger than anticipated December jobs report which showed over 100,000 more jobs created than estimated. Many investors looked at the jobs numbers as possibility inflationary and a reason for the ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Jan 10 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Jan 10 2025 review Wednesday's market action and the outlook for Friday. Stocks discussed include Delta Air Lines Stock (DAL), Broadcom Stock (AVGO), Constellation Brands Stock (STZ), Apple Stock (AAPL) and more. ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Jan 10 2025 – All About The December Employment Numbers

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Wednesday stocks traded between losses and gains but by the close the SPX was up 9 points to 5918. Intraday the index slipped to a low of 5874 which was not as low as Jan 2or Dec ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Jan 8 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Jan 8 2025 review Tuesday's sell-off and discuss the outlook and when we may see another rally attempt. Stocks discussed include Walt Disney Stock (DIS), Microsoft Stock (MSFT), Advanced Micro Devices Stock ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Wed Jan 8 2025 – Possible Rally Attempt But Still Lower

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Tuesday the day ended as expected. Monday's close pointed to a bounce attempt to start the day and then more selling and a lower close. The close though was lower than I had expected. The problem with ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Jan 7 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Jan 7 2025 review Monday's rally and the afternoon selling which saw the SPX drop 43 points from the intraday high. Stocks discussed include Nike Stock (NKE), Walt Disney Stock (DIS), Apple ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Jan 7 2025 – Morning Bounce Likely But Lower Close

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Monday I had expected a bit of a dip in the morning and then a push higher. Instead the SPX opened above 5990, raced to 6020 and then fell back to close below the morning open at ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Jan 6 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Jan 6 2025 review Friday's strong rally and discusses the outlook for January. Stocks discussed include NVIDIA Stock (NVDA), Apple Stock (AAPL), Crowdstrike Stock (CRWD), Starbucks Stock (SBUX), SPY ETF and more. ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Jan 6 2025 – Morning Dip Likely But Higher Close

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Friday stocks finally bounced on good volume to end the week on a positive note. The S&P closed up 74 points for the best one day gain since Nov 6. Volume jumped to 3.8 billion shares with ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Jan 3 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Jan 3 2025 review Thursday's selling and comments on the outlook for January. Stocks discussed include NVIDIA Stock (NVDA), DoorDash Stock (DASH), Crowdstrike Stock (CRWD), Starbucks Stock (SBUX) and more. The morning ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Jan 3 2025 – Second Bounce Attempt Expected

Prior Trading Day Summary: The first trading day of 2025 saw the day start with a bounce but then the SPX fall to the lows last seen on Dec 20 before some buying managed to push the index up to close just ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Jan 2 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Jan 2 2025 review Tuesday's sell-off. As well the notes discuss what 2025 may hold for investors if there is no Santa Claus Rally. Stocks discussed include NVIDIA Stock (NVDA), Tesla Stock ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Jan 2 2025 – Bounce Likely But Bye Bye Santa

Prior Trading Day Summary: The final day of 2024, Tuesday Dec 31, saw more profit-taking and lower closes. The S&P closed down 25 points. As a minimum the Santa Claus Rally needs to gain at least 1% over the close on Monday ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Dec 31 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Dec 31 2024 review Monday's sell-off and the question of whether there is still a chance for the Santa Claus Rally. Stocks discussed include NVIDIA Stock (NVDA), Johnson and Johnson Stock (JNJ), ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Dec 31 2024 – Possible Bounce But Santa May Be Gone

Prior Trading Day Summary: Thursday saw further selling on New York and the NASDAQ. By the end of the day the S&P had lost 64 points to close at 5906. The NASDAQ closed down 235 points closing at 19486. The Santa Claus ....... Read More

• 1
• 2
• 3
• …
• 313
• ›