Stock Market Outlook for Mon Mar 14 2022 – Cautious Day With Bias Up

Friday started with a bounce which came within 8 points of 4300 but within 20 minutes sellers returned and stocks spent the entire day falling lower. The final hour and a half were particularly brutal as the index simply fell steadily on increasing volume. It dropped from 4251 to 4200.  The end of the day saw a small bounce with the index closing up 4 points off the low at 4204.

From the morning high to the closing low on Friday the S&P fell 91 points. The close saw a loss of 55 points for a loss of 1.3%.

Losses mounted for the NASDAQ with the index down 286 points on Friday for a 2.18% loss. The index closed at 12,843 still above the 52 week low of 12587 but down 20.7% from the 52 week high of 16212. The week ended with losses again for all three indexes. The S&P is down 12.75% to start off the third week of March but still doing better than the tech heavy NASDAQ.

Let’s review Friday’s closing technicals and candlestick to see what to expect for Monday.

Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Fri Mar 11 2022 

There were some changes in the S&P chart following Friday’s close.

The Upper Bollinger Band is turning lower while the Lower Bollinger Band is still trending sideways. This is a mixed signal advising that investors are not sure they want to take stocks much lower. If the Lower Bollinger Band begins to fall then we know the market will move lower. If though it rises to meet the Upper Bollinger Band there is a good case for the market to change back to higher. We will know more as this week unfolds.

The closing candlestick on Friday is bearish but after the candlestick on Thursday, often we will see a slightly weaker day but more a sideways action similar to what was seen on Jan 27.

The other important event on Friday is a new down signal. The 50 day moving average fell below the 100 day for the first time on Friday.

There are now 4 down signals in place which you can see in the chart below.

All the major moving averages are falling lower including the 200 day which is also starting to fall.

The chart remains negative as of Friday’s close.

Stock Market Outlook review Fri Mar 11 2022

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is falling and negative.

• Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Mon Mar 7 2022 . The down signaled strengthened only slightly on Friday but is signaling sideways rather than strongly lower. The MACD histogram shows a further weakening as well but still negative.

• Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is negative and falling.

• Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic still has an up signal in place for a second day.

Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling.

• Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling.

• Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

4500 is resistance

4490 is light resistance

4475 is light resistance

4450 is light resistance

4400 is good support and the 200 day moving average

4370 is light support

4350 is light support

4300 is good support

4290 is light support

4270 is light support

4250 is good support

4225 is light support

4200 is good support

4150 is good support

4000 is good support

 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Mon Mar 14 2022 

The biggest issue facing the index on Monday is the continuing war in Ukraine. Weekend developments may start the index off negative although some hopeful talk about both sides still looking for a settlement may help the index to try to pop. This week investors also get the highly expected first rate increase from the Fed. Often when an event such as that finally gets implemented, stock markets actually rise with yet another unknown finally out of the way. Fingers crossed on that one. Overall the focus of investors will be on the war, its fallout, oil prices and any expansion of the war for much of this week if not all of it.

The closing candlestick on Friday is advising that we could see a sideways day on Monday with a possible higher day on Tuesday. This is a cautious day with a bias to the upside.

Stock Market Outlook Archives

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Jan 15 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Jan 15 2025 review Tuesday's volatile day of trading along with the outlook for Wednesday's trading. Stocks discussed include TQQQ ETF, Taiwan Semiconductor Stock (TSM), UnitedHealth Group Stock (UNH), Bank Of America ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Wed Jan 15 2025 – All About Bank Earnings

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Tue Jan 14 2025 stocks once more gyrated between gains and losses. The S&P was as low as 5805 and as high as 5871 before closing up 6 points to 5842. Volume dipped lower on Tuesday with ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Jan 14 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Jan 14 2025 review Monday's market action which ended with a slight gain. Stocks discussed include TQQQ ETF, Citigroup Stock (C), JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo Stock (WFC), Goldman Sachs Stock ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Jan 14 2025 – Second Bounce Likely

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Monday stocks opened lower but all 3 indexes managed to close the day higher. The SPX fell below the 100 day moving average in the morning but managed to find buyers to help push the index back ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Jan 13 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Jan 13 2025 review Friday's sell-off, the outlook for today and the week. Stocks discussed include TQQQ ETF, Walt Disney (DIS), JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo Stock (WFC), Citigroup Stock (C) ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Jan 13 2025 – Still Bearish – Bounce Attempt Likely

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Friday investors sold stocks lower following a stronger than anticipated December jobs report which showed over 100,000 more jobs created than estimated. Many investors looked at the jobs numbers as possibility inflationary and a reason for the ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Jan 10 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Jan 10 2025 review Wednesday's market action and the outlook for Friday. Stocks discussed include Delta Air Lines Stock (DAL), Broadcom Stock (AVGO), Constellation Brands Stock (STZ), Apple Stock (AAPL) and more. ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Jan 10 2025 – All About The December Employment Numbers

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Wednesday stocks traded between losses and gains but by the close the SPX was up 9 points to 5918. Intraday the index slipped to a low of 5874 which was not as low as Jan 2or Dec ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Jan 8 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Jan 8 2025 review Tuesday's sell-off and discuss the outlook and when we may see another rally attempt. Stocks discussed include Walt Disney Stock (DIS), Microsoft Stock (MSFT), Advanced Micro Devices Stock ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Wed Jan 8 2025 – Possible Rally Attempt But Still Lower

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Tuesday the day ended as expected. Monday's close pointed to a bounce attempt to start the day and then more selling and a lower close. The close though was lower than I had expected. The problem with ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Jan 7 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Jan 7 2025 review Monday's rally and the afternoon selling which saw the SPX drop 43 points from the intraday high. Stocks discussed include Nike Stock (NKE), Walt Disney Stock (DIS), Apple ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Jan 7 2025 – Morning Bounce Likely But Lower Close

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Monday I had expected a bit of a dip in the morning and then a push higher. Instead the SPX opened above 5990, raced to 6020 and then fell back to close below the morning open at ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Jan 6 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Jan 6 2025 review Friday's strong rally and discusses the outlook for January. Stocks discussed include NVIDIA Stock (NVDA), Apple Stock (AAPL), Crowdstrike Stock (CRWD), Starbucks Stock (SBUX), SPY ETF and more. ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Jan 6 2025 – Morning Dip Likely But Higher Close

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Friday stocks finally bounced on good volume to end the week on a positive note. The S&P closed up 74 points for the best one day gain since Nov 6. Volume jumped to 3.8 billion shares with ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Jan 3 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Jan 3 2025 review Thursday's selling and comments on the outlook for January. Stocks discussed include NVIDIA Stock (NVDA), DoorDash Stock (DASH), Crowdstrike Stock (CRWD), Starbucks Stock (SBUX) and more. The morning ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Jan 3 2025 – Second Bounce Attempt Expected

Prior Trading Day Summary: The first trading day of 2025 saw the day start with a bounce but then the SPX fall to the lows last seen on Dec 20 before some buying managed to push the index up to close just ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Jan 2 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Jan 2 2025 review Tuesday's sell-off. As well the notes discuss what 2025 may hold for investors if there is no Santa Claus Rally. Stocks discussed include NVIDIA Stock (NVDA), Tesla Stock ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Jan 2 2025 – Bounce Likely But Bye Bye Santa

Prior Trading Day Summary: The final day of 2024, Tuesday Dec 31, saw more profit-taking and lower closes. The S&P closed down 25 points. As a minimum the Santa Claus Rally needs to gain at least 1% over the close on Monday ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Dec 31 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Dec 31 2024 review Monday's sell-off and the question of whether there is still a chance for the Santa Claus Rally. Stocks discussed include NVIDIA Stock (NVDA), Johnson and Johnson Stock (JNJ), ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Dec 31 2024 – Possible Bounce But Santa May Be Gone

Prior Trading Day Summary: Thursday saw further selling on New York and the NASDAQ. By the end of the day the S&P had lost 64 points to close at 5906. The NASDAQ closed down 235 points closing at 19486. The Santa Claus ....... Read More

• 1
• 2
• 3
• …
• 313
• ›