Weaker Morning With Stronger Than Expected Retails Sales – Morning Intraday Comments for Wed Feb 16 2022

The morning started lower but there are signals the market is basically in a wait and see mode which tells investors there are plenty of investors wanting to get into stocks but they are just nibbling this morning.

Use The Bounces

Remember in the bounces take profits until it is determined the selling is ending. Yesterday was excellent for taking profits. Today in the drop and if there are some deeper ones, I setup more trades.

Morning Stats

Overall the outlook is negative but there are lots of bulls as you can see in the stats. Right now though it’s a wait and see attitude as the Ukraine-Russia crisis continues this morning with no real resolution or even signs of a probable resolution. Europe hopes for a diplomatic settlement but is expecting an invasion.

New York – SPX

Volume is below average but 56% of all volume is rising not falling. As well 47% of all stocks are rising not falling. 43% are falling.

So far this morning there are 59 new 52 week highs and 129 new lows. The lows though are almost all the same stocks as yesterday. They are moving lower which keeps them in the new 52 week low category.

The outlook for New York remains actually fairly positive.

NASDAQ 

Volume here is average for the morning to 11:00 AM but 53% is to the downside which is opposite of what is happening on New York.

49% of all stocks are falling while 37% are rising. Not a strong decline but pronounced enough that new lows are 3 to 1.

The outlook for the NASDAQ remains negative but with so many stocks beaten down a bounce, even a small one, remains a possibility later this morning or into the afternoon.

Overall though the day looks fairly negative for the NASDAQ.

TSX Composite Index 

The TSX Composite Index is a different picture. Volume is average of just 110 million shares traded but despite being in the red, 59% of all volume traded is to the upside. 33% of stocks are rising while 44% are falling. A large 22% of all stocks are unchanged.

The TSX Composite Index has remained strong throughout this period of growing inflation, rising rates and the Ukraine-Russia crisis. Canadian bank stocks have also remained extremely resilient.

General Outlook

Overall a muddling day with a negative morning is expected. There is a chance for a move higher late morning or over the lunch hour but unless there is positive news out of the Russia-Ukraine crisis, another negative close is expected. NVIDIA (NVDA) reports earnings after the close today and that could be a market mover for tomorrow. If earnings miss though, watch for the NASDAQ to move lower tomorrow. Walmart reports earnings on Thursday before the open. Retail sales numbers this morning are encouraging and show analysts are wrong on retail sales falling. They are going the opposite way despite rising prices. That’s good news for the economy although inflationary as consumers seem ready to accept rising prices for now.