FullyInformed.com

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Feb 26 2021 – Bounce Possible But Lower

Feb 26, 2021 | Stock Market Outlook

Potential Bounce But Lower

With the 10 year treasury rising to 1.5%, the highest level in over a year (rates were 0.5% in the fall) investors bailed on stocks for a second day. While the close for the S&P was not as low as we saw on Tuesday when the S&P almost touched 3800, it was actually far worse as rallied were small and selling was relentless. On Tuesday the index plunged but then a rally reversed the selling and on Wednesday the index recovered all the losses from the start of the week. At the open the S&P looked like it might take a small dip and then try to climb higher but with investors scared of interest rates, the jump to 1.5% was too unsettling. It’s not the rate rise itself that disturbed, it’s the unknown lying ahead. Most analysts and investors believe rising rates will end this bull market. Rates rising to 2% or 3% would definitely impact stocks negative.

Let’s look at the technical indicators from the close on Thursday to see what, if anything, they can tell us for Friday.


Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Thu Feb 25 2021 

The S&P closed at 3829 a drop of 2.45% for a loss of 96 points. The closing candlestick is negative for Friday. It points to the potential for a bounce but indicated the index will break below the 50 day moving average.

Intraday the index almost reached the 50 day around 3:40 which resulted in a very small bounce.

The Upper Bollinger Band is still climbing. The Lower Bollinger Band is moving sideways. These are bullish signals for the Bollinger Bands but it will only take more selling on Friday to turn them bearish.

The 21 day moving average is dipping slightly. The 200, 100 and 50 day moving averages are still climbing. Overall the market is back to weakness and the break of the 21 day again on Thursday is signaling the index will fall to the 100 day next which is around 3680 at present. That’s a drop of 150 points or 3.9%.

Stock Market Outlook review of Thu Feb 25 2021

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is falling sharply and negative.

  • Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Mon Feb 23 2021. On Thursday the down signal gained a lot of strength. More downside should be expected.

  • Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling.

  • Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place

Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling sharply.

  • Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling.

  • Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.





Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

4000 is resistance

3900 is resistance

3850 is support.

3800 is support.

3750 is support

3700 is light support

3680 is light support – The 100 day moving average is at this valuation.

3600 is strong support

3550 is support

3500 is strong support

3450 is support. The 200 day moving average is just above this valuation. A drop this low would represent an 11% correction.


 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Fri Feb 26 2021 

The closing candlestick indicates there is a chance for a bounce before more selling but that is unlikely based on the other technical indicators.

All the indicators are pointing to lower prices for Friday. The big concern will be interest rates on Friday and next week. If the 10 year Treasury climbs to 1.75% we will see more selling and at 2% the index will probably break the 100 day and head lower.

Overall caution is definitely warranted for the next several days at least.


Stock Market Outlook Archives

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Jan 10 2025

Morning Investing Strategy Notes
For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Jan 10 2025 review Wednesday's market action and the outlook for Friday. Stocks discussed include Delta Air Lines Stock (DAL), Broadcom Stock (AVGO), Constellation Brands Stock (STZ), Apple Stock (AAPL) and more. ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Jan 10 2025 – All About The December Employment Numbers

All About The Non-Farm Payroll Report
Prior Trading Day Summary: On Wednesday stocks traded between losses and gains but by the close the SPX was up 9 points to 5918. Intraday the index slipped to a low of 5874 which was not as low as Jan 2or Dec ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Jan 8 2025

Morning Investing Strategy Notes
For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Jan 8 2025 review Tuesday's sell-off and discuss the outlook and when we may see another rally attempt. Stocks discussed include Walt Disney Stock (DIS), Microsoft Stock (MSFT), Advanced Micro Devices Stock ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Wed Jan 8 2025 – Possible Rally Attempt But Still Lower

Stock Market Outlook - Rally Attempt But Still Lower
Prior Trading Day Summary: On Tuesday the day ended as expected. Monday's close pointed to a bounce attempt to start the day and then more selling and a lower close. The close though was lower than I had expected. The problem with ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Jan 7 2025

Morning Investing Strategy Notes
For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Jan 7 2025 review Monday's rally and the afternoon selling which saw the SPX drop 43 points from the intraday high. Stocks discussed include Nike Stock (NKE), Walt Disney Stock (DIS), Apple ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Jan 7 2025 – Morning Bounce Likely But Lower Close

Stock Market Outlook - Bounce Likely But Lower
Prior Trading Day Summary: On Monday I had expected a bit of a dip in the morning and then a push higher. Instead the SPX opened above 5990, raced to 6020 and then fell back to close below the morning open at ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Jan 6 2025

Morning Investing Strategy Notes
For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Jan 6 2025 review Friday's strong rally and discusses the outlook for January. Stocks discussed include NVIDIA Stock (NVDA), Apple Stock (AAPL), Crowdstrike Stock (CRWD), Starbucks Stock (SBUX), SPY ETF and more. ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Jan 6 2025 – Morning Dip Likely But Higher Close

Stock Market Outlook - Early Morning Dip But Higher Close
Prior Trading Day Summary: On Friday stocks finally bounced on good volume to end the week on a positive note. The S&P closed up 74 points for the best one day gain since Nov 6. Volume jumped to 3.8 billion shares with ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Jan 3 2025

Morning Investing Strategy Notes
For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Jan 3 2025 review Thursday's selling and comments on the outlook for January. Stocks discussed include NVIDIA Stock (NVDA), DoorDash Stock (DASH), Crowdstrike Stock (CRWD), Starbucks Stock (SBUX) and more. The morning ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Jan 3 2025 – Second Bounce Attempt Expected

Stock Market Outlook - Second Bounce Attempt
Prior Trading Day Summary: The first trading day of 2025 saw the day start with a bounce but then the SPX fall to the lows last seen on Dec 20 before some buying managed to push the index up to close just ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Jan 2 2025

Morning Investing Strategy Notes
For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Jan 2 2025 review Tuesday's sell-off. As well the notes discuss what 2025 may hold for investors if there is no Santa Claus Rally. Stocks discussed include NVIDIA Stock (NVDA), Tesla Stock ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Jan 2 2025 – Bounce Likely But Bye Bye Santa

Stock Market Outlook Bye Bye Santa
Prior Trading Day Summary: The final day of 2024, Tuesday Dec 31, saw more profit-taking and lower closes. The S&P closed down 25 points. As a minimum the Santa Claus Rally needs to gain at least 1% over the close on Monday ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Dec 31 2024

Morning Investing Strategy Notes
For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Dec 31 2024 review Monday's sell-off and the question of whether there is still a chance for the Santa Claus Rally. Stocks discussed include NVIDIA Stock (NVDA), Johnson and Johnson Stock (JNJ), ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Dec 31 2024 – Possible Bounce But Santa May Be Gone

Santa May Be Gone
Prior Trading Day Summary: Thursday saw further selling on New York and the NASDAQ. By the end of the day the S&P had lost 64 points to close at 5906. The NASDAQ closed down 235 points closing at 19486. The Santa Claus ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Dec 30 2024

Morning Investing Strategy Notes
For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Dec 30 2024 review Friday's sell-off and the outlook for the anticipated Santa Claus Rally. Stocks discussed include Winnebago Industries Stock (WGO), NVIDIA Stock (NVDA), Nucor Stock (NUE) and more. The morning ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Dec 30 2024 – Looking For Santa Claus Rally

Looking For Santa Claus Rally - Stock Market Outlook
Prior Trading Day Summary: Friday was a low volume day on the S&P but not on the NASDAQ where 8 billion shares were traded. Whether the day was primarily profit-taking or computerized trading as the market dipped lower, the close saw the ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Dec 27 2024

Morning Investing Strategy Notes
For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Dec 27 2024 review the market action on Thursday. Stocks discussed include Advanced Micro Devices Stock (AMD), Apple Stock (AAPL), IWM ETF, VIX Index and more. The morning Investing Strategy Notes are ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Dec 27 2024 – Still Bullish

Still Bullish
Prior Trading Day Summary: Thursday was a low volume day as anticipated and stock indexes were basically flat on the day. The S&P closed down 2 points to 6037 and the NASDAQ was down 10 points to 20020. There was little of ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Dec 26 2024

Morning Investing Strategy Notes
For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Dec 26 2024 review the rally on Tuesday and the outlook for the so-called Santa Claus Rally. Stocks discussed include UnitedHealth Group Stock (UNH), Apple Stock (AAPL) and more. The morning Investing ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Dec 26 2024 – Continuing To Run Higher

Stock Market Outlook - higher
Prior Trading Day Summary: Tuesday saw a low volume half day. Normally a half day favors the bulls and Tuesday definitely proved this point. The SPX rose 66 points to end the day at 6040. The past three trading days recovered Wednesday's ....... Read More

Search

Select to view all results...

Generic selectors
Exact matches only
Search in title
Search in content
Post Type Selectors

Recent Outlooks

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Jan 10 2025 – All About The December Employment Numbers

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Wednesday stocks traded between losses and gains but by the close the SPX was up 9 points to 5918. Intraday the index slipped to a low of 5874 which was not as low as Jan …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Jan 8 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Jan 8 2025 review Tuesday’s sell-off and discuss the outlook and when we may see another rally attempt. Stocks discussed include Walt Disney Stock (DIS), Microsoft Stock (MSFT), Advanced Micro …

Stock Market Outlook for Wed Jan 8 2025 – Possible Rally Attempt But Still Lower

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Tuesday the day ended as expected. Monday’s close pointed to a bounce attempt to start the day and then more selling and a lower close. The close though was lower than I had expected. The …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Jan 7 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Jan 7 2025 review Monday’s rally and the afternoon selling which saw the SPX drop 43 points from the intraday high. Stocks discussed include Nike Stock (NKE), Walt Disney Stock …

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Jan 7 2025 – Morning Bounce Likely But Lower Close

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Monday I had expected a bit of a dip in the morning and then a push higher. Instead the SPX opened above 5990, raced to 6020 and then fell back to close below the morning …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Jan 6 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Jan 6 2025 review Friday’s strong rally and discusses the outlook for January. Stocks discussed include NVIDIA Stock (NVDA), Apple Stock (AAPL), Crowdstrike Stock (CRWD), Starbucks Stock (SBUX), SPY ETF …

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Jan 6 2025 – Morning Dip Likely But Higher Close

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Friday stocks finally bounced on good volume to end the week on a positive note. The S&P closed up 74 points for the best one day gain since Nov 6. Volume jumped to 3.8 billion …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Jan 3 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Jan 3 2025 review Thursday’s selling and comments on the outlook for January. Stocks discussed include NVIDIA Stock (NVDA), DoorDash Stock (DASH), Crowdstrike Stock (CRWD), Starbucks Stock (SBUX) and more …

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Jan 3 2025 – Second Bounce Attempt Expected

Prior Trading Day Summary: The first trading day of 2025 saw the day start with a bounce but then the SPX fall to the lows last seen on Dec 20 before some buying managed to push the index up to …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Jan 2 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Jan 2 2025 review Tuesday’s sell-off. As well the notes discuss what 2025 may hold for investors if there is no Santa Claus Rally. Stocks discussed include NVIDIA Stock (NVDA), …

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Jan 2 2025 – Bounce Likely But Bye Bye Santa

Prior Trading Day Summary: The final day of 2024, Tuesday Dec 31, saw more profit-taking and lower closes. The S&P closed down 25 points. As a minimum the Santa Claus Rally needs to gain at least 1% over the close …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Dec 31 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Dec 31 2024 review Monday’s sell-off and the question of whether there is still a chance for the Santa Claus Rally. Stocks discussed include NVIDIA Stock (NVDA), Johnson and Johnson …

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Dec 31 2024 – Possible Bounce But Santa May Be Gone

Prior Trading Day Summary: Thursday saw further selling on New York and the NASDAQ. By the end of the day the S&P had lost 64 points to close at 5906. The NASDAQ closed down 235 points closing at 19486. The …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Dec 30 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Dec 30 2024 review Friday’s sell-off and the outlook for the anticipated Santa Claus Rally. Stocks discussed include Winnebago Industries Stock (WGO), NVIDIA Stock (NVDA), Nucor Stock (NUE) and more …

Subscribe For The Latest News