Stock Market Outlook for Mon May 18 2020 – Choppy, Dips Likely But Higher

Friday saw stocks open the day lower, struggle back and then tumble again around 11:00 AM. But the SPX refused to fall even as low as 2810 and that signal brought in buyers. Investors twice pushed the index to 2860 in the mid-afternoon and when there was limited selling, buyers pushed harder into the close. The S&P ended the day up only 11 points but the day actually saw the index climb from a low of 2817 to a high of 2865 for a swing of 48 points, impressive on the back of Thursday’s gains that saw the index climb from a morning open low of 2771 to 2852 for another intraday gain of 81 points. Both were impressive rallies. Let’s view Friday’s technical indicators to see where next week may start.

Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Thu May 14 2020 

The SPX chart continues to be bearish with 6 sell signals in the chart and a Bollinger Bands Squeeze that is still underway. There is one up signal from May 1 with the 21 day moving average, back above the 50 day. Since moving above the 50 day the 21 day has turned sideways and given no further up signals.

Friday’s closing candlestick was bullish for Monday. The index closed below the 200, 100 and 21 day moving averages but it closed inside the Bollinger Bands Squeeze which is still bullish.

The 200 day moving average is still leading the market, which is typical in a bear market. It is still followed closely by the 100 day. The 100 day is continuing to not fall further but is trending sideways with the 200 day. Normally this is somewhat bullish. The 50 day is continuing to fall which is bearish.

The Bollinger Bands Squeeze is still underway and is showing signs the index may move lower out of the squeeze. The Lower Bollinger Band is above the 50 day and the Upper Bollinger Band is at the 200 day, both of which are normally bullish in a rally. While the chart is still bearish there are growing signs that the lows of March may not be revisited unless a new catalyst to the downside should appear.

Stock Market Outlook review of Fri May 15 2020

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is rising and back slightly positive.

• Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an unconfirmed down signal on Wed May 13 2020. The down signal was confirmed on Thursday and was stronger on Friday.

• Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator signal is rising and positive.

• Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a weak down signal in place.

Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising.

• Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising.

• Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

3000 is strong resistance

2950 is resistance

2900 is resistance

2860 is light support

2840 is light support

2800 is good support

2725 is light support

2700 is light support and marked a drop of 20.4%.

2675 is light resistant

2650 is light support

2625 is light support

2600 is support

2550 is light support

2500 was good support and marked a correction of 26.3%

2344 is the next level of support and marks a 30.9% correction.

2191 was the market low on March 23 and most analysts believe this is the low point we will see.

2100 is light support

2000 is good support and marks a drop of 1393 points for a 41% correction. Some analysts believe the index will fall this low before the bear market ends.

 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Mon May 18 2020 

While the S&P chart is still bearish the technical indicators are mixed after Friday’s close. Perhaps most important is the down signal from MACD is gaining strength to the downside despite the S&P climbing again on Friday. The only other technical indicator that is bearish is the Slow Stochastic which still has a down signal for Monday. However that signal is very weak and could turn into an up signal during the day on Monday, if the S&P rises intraday in the morning.

Out of the 6 technical indicators, 4 are pointing to the index as still able to rise further. With signals mixed after Thursday and Friday’s advances, investors should expect another choppy day of trading on Monday and dips are likely, but the bias is still for a higher close to start the week.

Stock Market Outlook Archives

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Jan 15 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Jan 15 2025 review Tuesday's volatile day of trading along with the outlook for Wednesday's trading. Stocks discussed include TQQQ ETF, Taiwan Semiconductor Stock (TSM), UnitedHealth Group Stock (UNH), Bank Of America ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Wed Jan 15 2025 – All About Bank Earnings

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Tue Jan 14 2025 stocks once more gyrated between gains and losses. The S&P was as low as 5805 and as high as 5871 before closing up 6 points to 5842. Volume dipped lower on Tuesday with ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Jan 14 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Jan 14 2025 review Monday's market action which ended with a slight gain. Stocks discussed include TQQQ ETF, Citigroup Stock (C), JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo Stock (WFC), Goldman Sachs Stock ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Jan 14 2025 – Second Bounce Likely

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Monday stocks opened lower but all 3 indexes managed to close the day higher. The SPX fell below the 100 day moving average in the morning but managed to find buyers to help push the index back ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Jan 13 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Jan 13 2025 review Friday's sell-off, the outlook for today and the week. Stocks discussed include TQQQ ETF, Walt Disney (DIS), JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo Stock (WFC), Citigroup Stock (C) ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Jan 13 2025 – Still Bearish – Bounce Attempt Likely

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Friday investors sold stocks lower following a stronger than anticipated December jobs report which showed over 100,000 more jobs created than estimated. Many investors looked at the jobs numbers as possibility inflationary and a reason for the ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Jan 10 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Jan 10 2025 review Wednesday's market action and the outlook for Friday. Stocks discussed include Delta Air Lines Stock (DAL), Broadcom Stock (AVGO), Constellation Brands Stock (STZ), Apple Stock (AAPL) and more. ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Jan 10 2025 – All About The December Employment Numbers

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Wednesday stocks traded between losses and gains but by the close the SPX was up 9 points to 5918. Intraday the index slipped to a low of 5874 which was not as low as Jan 2or Dec ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Jan 8 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Jan 8 2025 review Tuesday's sell-off and discuss the outlook and when we may see another rally attempt. Stocks discussed include Walt Disney Stock (DIS), Microsoft Stock (MSFT), Advanced Micro Devices Stock ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Wed Jan 8 2025 – Possible Rally Attempt But Still Lower

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Tuesday the day ended as expected. Monday's close pointed to a bounce attempt to start the day and then more selling and a lower close. The close though was lower than I had expected. The problem with ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Jan 7 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Jan 7 2025 review Monday's rally and the afternoon selling which saw the SPX drop 43 points from the intraday high. Stocks discussed include Nike Stock (NKE), Walt Disney Stock (DIS), Apple ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Jan 7 2025 – Morning Bounce Likely But Lower Close

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Monday I had expected a bit of a dip in the morning and then a push higher. Instead the SPX opened above 5990, raced to 6020 and then fell back to close below the morning open at ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Jan 6 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Jan 6 2025 review Friday's strong rally and discusses the outlook for January. Stocks discussed include NVIDIA Stock (NVDA), Apple Stock (AAPL), Crowdstrike Stock (CRWD), Starbucks Stock (SBUX), SPY ETF and more. ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Jan 6 2025 – Morning Dip Likely But Higher Close

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Friday stocks finally bounced on good volume to end the week on a positive note. The S&P closed up 74 points for the best one day gain since Nov 6. Volume jumped to 3.8 billion shares with ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Jan 3 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Jan 3 2025 review Thursday's selling and comments on the outlook for January. Stocks discussed include NVIDIA Stock (NVDA), DoorDash Stock (DASH), Crowdstrike Stock (CRWD), Starbucks Stock (SBUX) and more. The morning ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Jan 3 2025 – Second Bounce Attempt Expected

Prior Trading Day Summary: The first trading day of 2025 saw the day start with a bounce but then the SPX fall to the lows last seen on Dec 20 before some buying managed to push the index up to close just ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Jan 2 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Jan 2 2025 review Tuesday's sell-off. As well the notes discuss what 2025 may hold for investors if there is no Santa Claus Rally. Stocks discussed include NVIDIA Stock (NVDA), Tesla Stock ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Jan 2 2025 – Bounce Likely But Bye Bye Santa

Prior Trading Day Summary: The final day of 2024, Tuesday Dec 31, saw more profit-taking and lower closes. The S&P closed down 25 points. As a minimum the Santa Claus Rally needs to gain at least 1% over the close on Monday ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Dec 31 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Dec 31 2024 review Monday's sell-off and the question of whether there is still a chance for the Santa Claus Rally. Stocks discussed include NVIDIA Stock (NVDA), Johnson and Johnson Stock (JNJ), ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Dec 31 2024 – Possible Bounce But Santa May Be Gone

Prior Trading Day Summary: Thursday saw further selling on New York and the NASDAQ. By the end of the day the S&P had lost 64 points to close at 5906. The NASDAQ closed down 235 points closing at 19486. The Santa Claus ....... Read More

• 1
• 2
• 3
• …
• 313
• ›