Stock Market Outlook for Fri Dec 14 2018 – Down

We have certainly seen enough of these down days in the markets! This week investors have bought stocks only to turn around and sell them out, usually on the same day they were bought.

The type of action we saw on Thursday has been typical for this correction and investors remain worried that there is more downside action that upside potential, at present, in the indexes. That is leading to downward pressure on the indexes.

Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Thu Dec 13 2018 

The S&P chart remains bearish and a 5th sell signal occurred today as the 50 day moving average fell below the 200 day moving average. This is very bearish for the index.

All the major averages are still falling and the Bollinger Bands, both the Upper and Lower, are falling which supports the latest sell signal in the technical analysis of the market.

The closing candlestick is also bearish for Thursday.

Stock Market Outlook review of Thu Dec 13 2018

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is negative and falling.

• Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Mon Dec 10 2018. That signal was confirmed today.

• Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator signal is falling.

• Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place for Friday.

• Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is moving sideways and oversold.

• Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is also moving sideways and oversold.

• Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Support Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

2900 was good support – this will be strong resistance

2860 was good support – this will be resistance

2830 was light support and will be light resistance

2795 is light resistance

2745 to 2750 is light resistance

2725 is light resistance

2700 is resistance

2675 is light resistance

2650 is light resistance

2620 is light support

2600 is strong support and held the market up from the lowest pullback in the present correction.

There is good support at the 2550 level from where the market bounced back from the recent correction low on Feb 9.

The S&P has light support at 2480. It also has light support at 2450 and good support at 2425. Below that there is some support at 2400, 2380, 2350.

2300 has the most support at present but would represent a full correction of 641 points as a drop to this level would be 21% and just 5% away from a bear market signal ending the bull market from 2009.

 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Wed Dec 12 2018 

Today’s bounce attempt was lost late morning and failed to recover. The chart is very bearish but the technical indicators are showing the index is very oversold and a bounce could be expected at any time.

For Wednesday, I am expecting a bigger bounce attempt as investors pick through stocks that have been hammered lower.

With so many sell signals however, any bounce at this point is just that, a bounce and further downside movement should be expected shortly.

Stock Market Outlook Archives

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Feb 21 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Feb 21 2025 review Thursday's sell-off. Stocks discussed include Domino's Pizza Stock (DPZ), Berkshire Hathaway Stock (BRK.B) and more. The morning Investing Strategy Notes are for FullyInformed Members.   Members can ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Feb 21 2025 – Potential Bounce But Lower

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Thursday disappointing earnings and lowered forward guidance from Walmart (WMT) ahead of the open, unnerved investors who just a day earlier had pushed the SPX to a new all-time high. Selling spread quickly and took in many ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Feb 20 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Feb 20 2025 review the outlook for stocks after another new closing high on Wednesday. Stocks discussed include Toll Brothers Stock (TOL), Alibaba Stock (BABA), Walmart Stock (WMT), Texas Roadhouse Stock (TXRH), ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Feb 20 2025 – Overbought – Chance Of Lower Close

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Wed Feb 19 2025 the indexes squeezed out another small gain but the technical indicators are advising that the indexes are overbought. The SPX rose 14 points, matching Tuesday's gain to close at a new all-time closing ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Feb 19 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Feb 19 2025 review the outlook for stocks following a new high for the SPX on Tuesday. There are a few stocks discussed including Toll Brothers Stock (TOL),  Carvana Stock (CVNA), Alibaba ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Wed Feb 19 2025 – Choppy – Dip Possible But Still Up

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Tue Feb 18 2025 stock indexes traded in a tight range until the last 10 minutes when the SPX shot higher moving from 6112 to close at 6129, up 15 points, all of it in the final ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Feb 18 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Feb 18 2025 review the outlook for stocks following the Presidents Day holiday. There are a few stocks discussed including Medtronic Stock (MDT), Wingstop Stock (WING), Apple Stock (AAPL), Analog Devices Stock ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Feb 18 2025 – Morning Weakness Possible But Higher Close

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Friday Feb 14 US retail sales came in much lower than expected at -0.9% which was well below estimates and below the December reading of 0.2%. With retail sales showing some contraction investors decided to sell out ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Feb 14 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Feb 14 2025 review the outlook for stocks following a strong afternoon rally on Thursday. This was the strongest one day move up since Dec 24 2024. There are a few stocks ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Feb 14 2025 – Up Signal – Higher

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Thursday the PPI numbers came in slightly below estimates which assisted stocks in moving higher after Wednesday's stronger than expected CPI numbers. Comments in the afternoon from the White House on tariffs and their implementation seemed less ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Feb 13 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Feb 13 2025 review Wednesday's choppy trading and the outlook for today. There are many stocks discussed including Occidental Petroleum Stock (OXY), Tesla Stock (TSLA), Dutch Brothers Stock (BROS), Applovin Stock (APP), ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Feb 13 2025 – Unconfirmed MACD Down Signal

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Wednesday inflation fears rose again among investors as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January came in higher than estimatedand above the prior readings. Stocks opened considerably lower to start the day but spent the remainder of ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Feb 12 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Feb 12 2025 review trading action on Tuesday. Stocks discussed include McDonalds Stock (MCD), DoorDash Stock (DASH), Coca Cola Stock (KO), Merck Stock (MRK), Tesla Stock (TSLA), IWM ETF, Robin Hood Stock ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Wed Feb 12 2025 – Choppy – Dips Likely But Higher

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Tuesday stocks were choppy as Fed Chair Powell testified in front of Congress. In the end though the testimony offered nothing new and perhaps more important, no new worries. The close saw the SPX up just 2 ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Feb 11 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Feb 11 2025 review the rally from Monday. Stocks discussed include VIX ETF, Monday.com Stock (MNDY), McDonalds Stock (MCD), Palantir Stock (PLTR). IWM ETF, Coca Cola Stock (KO), Merck Stock (MRK), Apple ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Feb 11 2025 – Choppy But Higher Still

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Monday stocks regained their footings and buyers returned after Friday's down day. Trading was reasonably strong and the SPX stayed in a tight trading range with a low around 6047 and high of 6071. The index closed ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Feb 10 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Feb 10 2025 review the outlook for the start of the second week of February. Stocks discussed include VIX ETF, McDonalds Stock (MCD), Shopify Stock (SHOP) and more. The morning Investing Strategy ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Feb 10 2025 – Weakness But Higher Close Expected

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Friday stocks fell after the January non-farm payroll report showed a decline in employment to 143,000 versus 169,000 expected. The unemployment rate however fell to 4.0%. The SPX ended the day down 57 points and for the ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Feb 7 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Feb 7 2025 review the outlook for Friday and the January payroll numbers. Stocks discussed include VIX ETF, Amazon.com Stock (AMZN), Cloudflare Stock (NET), McDonalds Stock (MCD) and more. The morning Investing ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Feb 7 2025 – All About The January Jobs Report

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Thursday stocks rose to close modestly higher ahead of Friday's non-farm payroll report. The SPX ended up 22 points at 6083 on 4.9 billion shares traded. only 48% of stocks were rising by the close. The NASDAQ ....... Read More

• 1
• 2
• 3
• …
• 316
• ›