Prior Trading Day Summary:
Prior Trading Day Summary:On Mon Mar 17 2025 stocks ended the day higher after a second bounce. The SPX closed up 36 points at 5675 on low volume of 5.1 billion shares traded.
The NASDAQ closed up 54 points to 17808, also on lower volume of 6.4 billion shares traded.
Lets review the SPX technical indicators at the close on Mon Mar 17 2025 to see if the rally can extend into Tue Mar 18 2025.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Mon Mar 17 2025
The index touched the 200 day moving average before backing away. This is bearish.
The closing candlestick has a long shadow which suggests a lower open on Tuesday is probable.
The 21 day moving average is falling and closed at 5849 which is bearish. The 21 day moving average fell below the 50 day on Friday Mar 7 and on Thursday Mar 13 it fell below the 100 day for a second down signal.
The 50 day moving average is falling and closed at 5938 which is bearish.
The 100 day moving average is falling and closed at 5872 which is bearish.
The 200 day moving average is falling and closed at 5703 which is bearish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is falling which is bearish at present. The Upper Bollinger Band is turning lower which may signal a chance the selling slows..
For Tuesday the SPX chart is still strongly bearish and somewhat oversold. A lower open is likely.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Mon Mar 17 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and negative.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Mon Feb 21 2025. The down signal was weaker on Mon Mar 17 2025. It is at levels signaling the SPX is oversold and could bounce.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place and is oversold.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and not oversold.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling. A lower close is anticipated. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6000 is resistance |
| 5970 is resistance |
| 5950 is resistance |
| 5900 is resistance |
| 5890 is resistance |
| 5875 is resistance |
| 5850 is resistance |
| 5800 is resistance |
| 5775 is resistance |
| 5750 is resistance |
| 5730 is support |
| 5700 is support |
| 5650 is support |
| 5630 is support |
| 5600 is support |
| 5585 is support |
| 5550 is support |
| 5500 is support |
| 5450 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Tue Mar 18 2025
Technical indicators pointing to a weaker open on Tuesday and a chance the index could close lower. Trading volumes on Monday were lower which often signals a weak day coming up.
The closing candlestick from Monday also points to a lower open on Tuesday and a chance for a negative close.
Monday’s economic report focus is retail sales. If the numbers fail to meet estimates, stocks could open lower and fall to start the day, Monday.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
8:30 Retail sales rose 0.2% missing estimates of 0.6%
8:30 Retail sales minus autos rose to 0.3% meeting estimates
8:30 Empire state manufacturing surveyplunged to -20.9 missing estimates of -1.8
10:00 Business inventories came in as estimated at 0.3%
10:00 Home builder confidence index fell to 37 from 42 prior
Tuesday:
8:30 Housing starts are expected to rise to 1.38 million
8:30 Building permits are estimated to fall to 1.45 million
8:30 Import price index is expected to slip to -0.0% from 0.3% prior
9:15 Industrial production is estimated to slip to 0.3% from 0.5% prior
9:15 Capacity Utilization is estimated unchanged at 77.8%