Stock Market Outlook for Thu Mar 13 2025 – Deeply Oversold and PPI Numbers

Prior Trading Day Summary:

On Wednesday stocks tried to stage a rebound of sorts but while the attempt was reasonable on the NASDAQ, the SPX rose just slightly.

The Consumer Price Index report on Wednesday came is lower than expected which helped slow the selling. Today we get the Producer Price Index numbers which may assist for another bounce, but again, if the numbers come in higher than estimated, stocks will move lower.

On Wednesday the SPX closed up 27 points to 5599 while the NASDAQ climbed 212 points to end the day at 17,648.

Lets review the SPX technical indicators at the close on Wed Mar 12 2025 to see what to expect for Thu Mar 13 2025.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Mar 12 2025

For a third straight day, the index traded below the 200 day moving average the entire day on Wednesday. This is bearish.

The closing candlestick has two long shadows suggesting both a chance for a bounce again but the candlestick points to Wednesday as just a bearish bounce attempt.

The 21 day moving average is falling and closed at 5915 which is bearish. The 21 day moving average fell below the 50 day on Friday Mar 7 which is a major down signal.

The 50 day moving average is falling and closed at 5957 which is bearish.

The 100 day moving average is falling and closed at 5888 which is bearish.

The 200 day moving average is falling and closed at 5706 which is bearish.

The Lower Bollinger Band is falling which is bearish at present. The Upper Bollinger Band is turning sideways which suggests a bounce attempt for Thursday or Friday.

For Thursday the SPX chart is strongly bearish and deeply oversold.

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Mar 12 2025

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Mar 13 2025 

The morning will start with the Consumer Price Index numbers. If they are at or below estimated there is a good chance stocks will try again to move higher. If the CPI numbers are higher than estimated, stocks will move lower.

The technical indicators are signaling stocks are deeply oversold. It is rare to see readings so oversold, day after day without a better bounce attempt. Thursday may provide the bounce we have been watching for.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Monday:

There are no economic reports

Tuesday:

6:00 NFIB optimism index was lower than estimated coming in at 100.7

10:00 Job openings came in higher than estimated at 7.7 million

Wednesday:

8:30 Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, below estimates

8:30 CPI year-over-year came n at 2.8% below estimates

8:30 Core CPI came in at 0.2%, below estimates

8:30 Core CPI year-over-year came in at 3.1% which was below estimates

2:00 Monthly Federal budget was worse than estimated at -$307 billion

Thursday:

8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are estimated to rise to 225,000

8:30 Producer Price Index is estimated to fall to 0.3% from 0.4%

8:30 Core Producer Price Index is estimated unchanged at 0.3%

8:30 Producer Price Index year-over-year is estimated unchanged at 3.5%

8:30 Core Producer Price Index year-over-year is estimated to fall to 3.4%