Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Mon Jan 27 2025 stock indexes were lower as tech stocks sold-off following reports of a “cheaper” AI model being released by a Chinese startup, DeepSeek. While information was a bit murky, investors decided it was better to get out of tech stocks, particularly any remotely attached to AI and chip development and ask questions later. Selling was intense in names like NVIDIA Stock (NVDA), Broadcom Stock (AVGO), ARM Stock (ARM) and many more. However some stocks that originally moved lower, ended the day positive or flat like Meta Stock (META) and Apple Stock (AAPL). It was a rough day for investors who are holding tech names.
The SPX closed down 89 points to close at 6012. 51% of volume was moving lower but 56% of all stocks on New York were rising.
The NASDAQ lost 612 points and closed at 19,341. 63% of volume was declining along with 58% of all stocks on the index. It was the worse day for the index since July 24 2024 when the index lost 655 points.
The question now is whether the sell-off will end up being a one day event or the start of another move lower.
Let’s review the technical indicators at the close on Mon Jan 27 2025 to see what to expect for Tue Jan 28 2025.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Fri Jan 24 2025
The index closed below the 50 day moving average and at the 21 day. This is bearish.
The closing candlestick signaled a bounce is likely for Tuesday.
The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 5962 which is bullish. The 21 day is moving higher and should cross back above the 50 day which will end the only down signal in the chart.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed unchanged at 5981 which is bearish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5848 hich is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 5618 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is falling which is bullish at present. The Upper Bollinger Band is turned sideways which is bearish.
For Tuesday the SPX chart has a number of bearish signals but a bounce is probable.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Mon Jan 27 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Fri Jan 17 2025. The up signal was weaker on Mon Jan 27 2025.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling back is not at overbought levels..
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place and turning lower. It is overbought.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling and is not overbought.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling and signaling Tuesday will end lower.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6125 is resistance |
| 6100 is strong resistance |
| 6090 is resistance |
| 6070 is resistance |
| 6050 is resistance |
| 6025 is resistance |
| 6015 is resistance |
| 6000 is resistance |
| 5990 is resistance |
| 5970 is resistance |
| 5950 is support |
| 5900 is support |
| 5890 is support |
| 5875 is support |
| 5850 is support |
| 5830 is support |
| 5800 is support |
| 5780 is support |
| 5725 is support |
| 5700 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Tue Jan 28 2025
For Tuesday the technical signals are decidedly more bearish but they are also pointing to a good chance for a bounce even if the index closes lower by the end of the trading day.
On Monday housing numbers came in much stronger than expected at 698,000 which also weighed on stocks .
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
10:00 New home sales for December rose to 698,000 beyond all estimates.
Tuesday:
8:30 Durable goods orders are expected to rise to 0.5% from -1.1% prior
9:00 S&P Case-Shiller home price index is expected to rise slightly to 4.3% from 4.2%
10:00 Consumer confidence is expected to rise to 106 from 104.7 prior