Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Thursday the market was trending primarily sideways until the final 15 minutes when an influx of buy orders sent the SPX up from 6098 to 6118 for a new closing high. It also left the SPX even further overbought.
The NASDAQ had a tougher day but still managed to close up 44 points to 20053. Volumes of both indexes were lower but thanks to late in the day buying, 67% of volume on the SPX and 58% on the NASDAQ was advancing.
Both indexes are now very overbought.
Let’s review the technical indicators at the close on Thu Jan 23 2025 to see what to expect for Fri Jan 24 2025.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Thu Jan 23 2025
The index closed above all major moving averages and at the Upper Bollinger Band which is bullish.
The closing candlestick no shadows and closed at the high for the day. A dip is likely in the morning on Friday but the overbought market could still push higher.
The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 5952 which is bullish. The 21 day is moving higher and should cross back above the 50 day which will end the only down signal in the chart.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 5979 which is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5840 hich is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 5609 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is falling slightly which is bullish at present. The Upper Bollinger Band has turned back up which is bullish.
For Friday, the SPX chart is more bullish than bearish despite being overbought.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Thu Jan 23 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Fri Jan 17 2025. The up signal was stronger on Thu Jan 23 2025.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising and near overbought levels..
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place and is overbought.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and is overbought.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising and signaling Friday will end higher.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6125 is resistance |
| 6100 is strong resistance |
| 6090 is resistance |
| 6070 is resistance |
| 6050 is resistance |
| 6025 is resistance |
| 6015 is resistance |
| 6000 is resistance |
| 5990 is resistance |
| 5970 is resistance |
| 5950 is support |
| 5900 is support |
| 5890 is support |
| 5875 is support |
| 5850 is support |
| 5830 is support |
| 5800 is support |
| 5780 is support |
| 5725 is support |
| 5700 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Fri Jan 24 2025
For Friday the technical indicators and SPX chart are signaling a very overbought market but with still some room to climb.
Dips are likely on Friday and even a flat close is possible although the technical indicators are still pointing to a higher close for the end of the day.
Initial jobless claims on Thursday came in higher than estimated at 223,000 which was part of the reason for the index stumbling around on Thursday. Another reason was rising bond yields which had dipped back mid-week but on Thursday started to rise again. On Friday we get the latest services and manufacturing PMI which may impact market action in the early morning if the numbers are far off estimates, as outlined below under Friday.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
Martin Luther King Jr Day
Tuesday:
No event scheduled
Wednesday:
10:00 Leading economic indicators were -0.1% versus 0.3% prior
Thursday:
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims were higher than estimated at 223,000
Friday:
9:45 S&P flash services PMI is estimated to dip to 56.5 from 56.8 prior
9:45 S&P flash manufacturing PMI is estimated to rise slightly to 49.7 from 49.4
10:00 Existing home sales are estimated to rise to 4.2 million from 4.15 million prior
10:00 Consumer sentiment is estimated to remain unchanged at 73.2