Stock Market Outlook for Mon Dec 16 2024 – Choppy – Bias Lower

Prior Trading Day Summary:

Friday saw the SPX end the day flat closing where it opened at 6051. Intraday the index slipped to 6036 and moved as high as 6078. Volume was low at 3.7 billion shares but more stocks were falling at 66% versus 32% rising. There were 113 new 52 week lows, the worse single day showing since Sep 10.

The NASDAQ closed up 24 points to 19,926 but trading volume fell to 6.2 billion. New Lows were 2:1 against new highs and 64% of the index was falling by the close.

Overall it was a negative day.

For the week however the NASDAQ managed to gain 67 points while the S&P lost 39 points.

The third week of December is a big week for stocks with the Fed interest rate decision stuck right in the middle on Wednesday.

Let’s review the technical indicators at the close on Fri Dec 13 2024 to see what to expect for Mon Dec 16 2024.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Fri Dec 13 2024

The index closed flat on Friday with just a loss of 0.16 point. While this is bearish, it is also bullish that the index recovered intraday and is still holding onto part of Wednesday’s market rally.

The closing candlestick is bearish for Monday with two shadows. Sometimes this signals that there will be dips but also attempts to recover any dips. We could see a see-saw day on Monday.

The 21 day moving average is higher at 6006. The rally is slowing considerably and most noticeable in the 21 day.

The 50 day moving average is higher at 5906. This is bullish.

The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5765 which is bullish.

The 200 day moving average is in an uptrend and closed at 5510 which is bullish.

The Lower Bollinger Band is falling below the 50 day. This is bearish. It is not however falling further. The Upper Bollinger Band is rising which is bullish. At present the outlook has shifted to bearish for the Bollinger Bands.

The S&P chart is more bearish than bullish for Monday.

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Fri Dec 13 2024

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Dec 16 2024 

For Monday the morning should open with an attempt at a bounce before the index moves back lower. Investors’ focus will be on Wednesday’s interest rate announcement which investors overwhelming believe will be another quarter point cut. This should help keep the index in check until Wednesday. For that reason, investors should expect much of Monday will be choppy with with a bias lower by the close. The PMI on Monday at 9:45 could see a shift in the index depending on the numbers released. The estimates are below in the Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events section.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Monday:

8:30 Empire State manufacturing survey is estimated to drop to 10.0 from 31.2 prior

9:45 S&P flash US service PMI is expected to slip to 55.3 from 56.1 prior

9:45 S&P flash US manufacturing PMI is estimated to slip slightly to 49.6 from 49.7 prior