Prior Trading Day Summary:
Monday saw indexes tumble, giving back Friday’s rally as 10 year Treasury Bonds moved above 4% for the first time since early August.
The S&P closed down 55 points to 5696 on 3.7 billion shares. 72% of all stocks were falling.
The NASDAQ closed down 214 points to close at 17,924 on 5.3 billion shares traded. 68% of all stocks were falling.
For Tuesday, much of the market direction will hinge on the 10 year Treasury Bond. If it moves higher stocks will remain weak. If they fall below 4%, stocks could recover some of Monday’s loss.
Let’s review the SPX technical closing indicators from Mon Oct 7 2024 to see what to expect for Tue Oct 8 2024.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Mon Oct 7 2024
The index closed above the 21 day moving average and well below the Upper Bollinger Band which is bearish.
The closing candlestick is bearish.
The 21 day moving average is higher at 5668. This is bullish.
The 50 day moving average is higher at 5558. This is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5481 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is in an uptrend and closed at 5252 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is back above the 100 day moving average but the Upper Bollinger Band is falling lower. This is bearish at present.
The S&P chart is more bullish than bearish for Tuesday but there are three down signals to watch.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Mon Oct 7 2024
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and negative.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Fri Sep 13 2024. A new unconfirmed down signals was generated at the close on Thursday. On Mon Oct 7 2024 the down signal was confirmed. Note the strength of the MACD histogram.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling and positive.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place but is still on the verge of an up signal.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling sharply.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising sharply which indicates a larger move is expected, either up or down.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 5765 is resistance |
| 5750 is resistance |
| 5740 is resistance |
| 5715 is resistance |
| 5700 is resistance |
| 5680 is resistance |
| 5650 is resistance |
| 5625 is support |
| 5600 is support |
| 5575 is support |
| 5550 is light support |
| 5525 is support |
| 5500 is support |
| 5470 is support |
| 5450 is support |
| 5425 is support |
| 5400 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Tue Oct 8 2024
On Tuesday the technical indicators reversed direction again and showed more weakness again. The MACD technical indicator confirmed Thursday’s down signal. The Rate Of Change also is signaling a larger move could be coming which at this point could be up or down.
A lot of Tuesday’s direction will hinge on the 10 year Treasury yield and whether it falls back below 4% or climbs still higher.
The morning looks like a bounce could be attempted but the technical indicators are advising that the end of the day will be negative. If there is a bounce early to mid-morning, expect much of the bounce to possibly be given back unless the 10 year Treasury bond yield falls.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
3:00 Consumer credit was much lower than expected at $8.9 billion versus $13.2 billion estimated and $26.6 billion prior.
Tuesday:
6:00 NFIB optimism index expected to rise slightly to 91.6
8:30 Trade deficit estimated to rise to -70.8 billion from -$78.8 billion prior